Rethinking the use of Probability of Success to Increase Client Peace of Mind and Reduce Risk of Underspending
Monte Carlo analysis is a commonly used tool in financial planning, with the probability of success being the most common method for reporting a financial plan's results. However, this practice may be hurting clients more than helping them by creating more financial stress and a propensity for miserly financial behavior. In this webinar, Dr. Tharp explains how the use of probabilities of success is akin to the practice of bloodletting in the medical field, where professionals are commonly using a practice that is often misunderstood by professionals and clients. Through the presentation, Tharp explains what the probability of success metric truly means and its shortcomings, especially when considering ongoing planning. Tharp then explains an alternative planning method, adjustment-based guardrails, and presents practical methods to reframe retirement income planning to reduce the likelihood of underspending while helping clients enjoy their retirement fully.